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hockey picks - Why Calgary is Destined to Win the Stanley Cup?

As in many cases beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. This year’s emergence of the Calgary Flames as the Western Conference’s representative in the Stanley Cup Final seems to have caught most everyone off guard from the casual observer right up to hockeys most prudent and educated pundits. The Flames were easily overlooked entering the post-season as a 6th seed in the Western Conference, and with the exception of Jerome Iginla lacking in marquee personnel often associated with past Stanley Cup Champions. To understand how this rag-tag conglomerate of grinders, checkers, and painfully young prospects have achieved so much this spring is to understand in fact that they have achieved nothing. This is the mindset that drives the Flames to their ultimate goal. Every series thus far, every game, right down to every shift this team’s commitment, heart, and will to win have been front and center. You see it in their eyes and on their battered faces as they press on. If you look hard enough through the blood and the sweat, the poetic beauty of overachievement and all of its demands are of great inspiration. Destiny is near for these Flames as childhood dreams lay in wait.

The Calgary Flames climb to the top this spring cannot be dismissed or devalued by even the most pessimistic observer. After systematically taking down the Western Conference’s top 3 seeds in Vancouver #3, Detroit #1, and San Jose #2 the word lucky has no application here, nor should receive any consideration. Calgary’s relentless work ethic and refusal to be outworked by any of their opponents thus far has left all of Vancouver, Detroit, and San Jose thoroughly beaten in their wake. With Tampa Bay as their only remaining obstacle this article will explain why this series will be Calgary’s to lose and most likely their easiest of the playoffs thus far. Below I have assembled five reasons why Calgary will raise the Stanley Cup in the next week or so. All are compelling and substantial leaving no doubt whatsoever.

The Speed Factor

Much of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s success this season and more importantly through the playoffs can be attributed to their speed. As much as the Philadelphia Flyers tried to neutralize the Lightning’s clear advantage in this department by use of congesting the neutral zone, Tampa Bay was still able prevail with their deadly transition game that inevitably led to the Flyers demise. Speed was an overwhelming factor in Tampa Bay’s easy demolishing of the New York Islanders in the opening round and it was clearly evident against the Canadians who play a speed oriented game as well but just not quite as fast, or skilled.

Calgary by contrast is not overmatched in this department against Tampa Bay and the fact that they were well rested heading into the final plays into their advantage. The Flames are very adept at finishing their checks as well and lay on the body at every opportunity. Philadelphia failed in punishing the Tampa forwards large in part because they could not catch them. Calgary will succeed in doing so.

Flames Fore-Check vs. Tampa Bay’s Defense

The Lightning’s main vulnerability that nearly cost them against the Flyers was their susceptibility to being penned up in their own end against an intense fore-checking scheme. Philadelphia at times overwhelmed them in this department and the Lightning’s insistence on leaving their forwards high compounded this fact. Tampa Bay’s lethal transition game is largely successful due to this but at what cost? Philadelphia found success pressuring the Lightning down low creating the odd-man situations in Tampa Bay’s defensive zone and you can count on Calgary exploiting this weakness as well. Calgary in my opinion is the best fore-checking team in the NHL and Tampa Bay will be forced to pull their forwards back deeper in the defensive zone for support. This will greatly diminish Tampa Bay’s transitional threat. In addition the young legs of Calgary up front will give the Lightning fits throughout this series as Calgary repeatedly works their “dump and chase” style to perfection. As solidly as the Lightning have played defensively through this post season their ability to move pucks through danger zones have been not been one of their strengths. Calgary recognizes this and will key on this mismatch throughout the Final.

Mika Kiprusov

It is a well known fact that Championships are seldom recognized without the aid of outstanding goaltending. Calgary entered this season with an overvalued and unreliable Roman Turek as their #1 Goaltender backed up by the equally unimpressive Jamie McClennan as his backup. The Flames proceeded to lose 10 of their first 15 games of the season and Daryll Sutter recognizing his team’s most glaring weakness precipitated the acquisition of Mika Kiprusov from his former team the San Jose Sharks. Kiprusov was a commodity that Sutter knew well from his tenure in San Jose and with Goaltender Efgeny Nabokov healthy and playing well Calgary had little trouble in making the deal. Kiprusov made an immediate impact and lost just one of 11 consecutive starts for the Flames clearly establishing himself as their #1 Goaltender.

Perhaps Sutter’s confidence in Kiprusov played a role in his emergence as one of the NHL’s best Goaltenders this season but he certainly hasn’t looked back posting a 38-16-4 record as a Flame. His playoff performances have been even more impressive with clutch goaltending in pressure packed situations. Calgary’s confidence has soared with Kiprusov and the stability he brings to his position. Thus far he has outplayed Rick DiPietro of the New York Islanders dramatically, Curtis Joseph of Detroit, and Evgeny Nabokov who he backed up in San Jose. If Game #1 was any indication Nikolai Khabibulin who has been brilliant this post season for Tampa Bay is on his way to being upstaged by Kiprusov as well.

Jerome Iginla

More than any player in the post-season Jerome Iginla has impacted these playoffs with dominant performances in virtually every game. His likeable persona off the ice and fierce determined play on the ice has made him a consensus Conn Smythe Trophy pick should his Flames win the Stanley Cup. Iginla is the prototypical “Power forward”, big, fast, tough as nails, and blessed with soft hands around the net. He has produced consistently through these playoffs despite being targeted by the top checking units on every team he has faced. Iginla is currently 2nd to only Tampa Bay’s Martin St Louis in playoff scoring trailing the Lightning sniper by just a single point.

Not only is Iginla a huge threat offensively, his game is complimented by sound defensive play, strong leadership, and a punishing physical presence. No team thus far in the playoffs has been able to control the big Centerman by virtue of Iginla’s strength and ability to play in heavy traffic. He repeatedly wins battles for loose pucks, throws devastating bodychecks, and cannot be intimidated. Vancouver matched him up against big Swedish defenseman Mattias Ohlund at every opportunity and Ohlund tried the physical approach by getting in Iginla’s face, sticking him, and running Iginla on several occasions with questionable hits. The turning point of that series was Game #4 when Iginla fed the Big Swede a mouthful of knuckles in a horrendously one-sided fight rendering Ohlund the most passive and gentlemanly of opponents for the remainder of that series. In round #2 Detroit Red Wings d-man Darrian Hatcher who unlike Ohlund is notoriously tough took his liberties with Iginla and challenged the Flames Captain. Iginla was unhesitant in dropping the gloves against the bigger Hatcher. Jerome Iginla held his own in this tilt as well and in the process ignited his team with his spirited effort.

Just as Keith Primeau was a force for Philadelphia against the Tampa Bay Lightning with his strong physicality Jerome Iginla will also enjoy this same success against the Lightning. Tampa Bay seemingly had no answer to counter Primeau and Iginla’s presence will certainly be even more daunting. Remember too that Iginla brings that same style as Primeau to the table but raises the bar even higher with his superior speed and scoring touch. You can count on the Iginla factor being huge in this series with little the Lightning can do to counter his dominance.

Toughness

I don’t intend this as a slight to the Tamp Bay Lightning nor do I wish to depreciate their accomplishments this season but I feel that the Lightning’s toughest guy is their Head Coach John Tortorella but unfortunately for Tampa Bay Tortorella isn’t on the ice. This to me is a serious problem that will contribute in their lack of success in this series. To this point in time Tampa Bay has been able survive mainly due to their speed and goaltending. The Flyers challenged them physically in the Conference Final and came very close to winning that series. Thanks in large to superior goaltending and atrocious penalty killing by the Flyers allowing 9 goals to the Tampa Bay power-play the Lightning were able to escape from that series. They wont be as lucky here.

I have stated repeatedly in previous articles dating back to last season when San Jose made the horrendous error of firing Darryl Sutter that Sutter’s motivational skills are of the highest level. When Calgary snatched him immediately I applauded their decision and stated that his fit here would be perfect for their quality young players and especially Jerome Iginla who at the time was stalled after posting a breakthrough season in 2001/02. With the very tight financial restrictions in a small market Sutter’s ability to get the most out his players was also essential to revitalize this franchise.

Sutter is very much a players Coach but he’s tough as nails and demands no less than 100% from his players. If any of you are familiar with Sutter’s tenure as an NHL player, your quite aware that he, nor any of his 5 other brothers that all played NHL hockey were very talented. Instead they all possessed heart and determination that carried them through their careers. The 6 brothers from Viking Alberta were tough farm boys who fought for everything they ever got. Sutter’s fire and emotion have rubbed off on his players who have taken on that personality on the ice. Calgary is never outworked and they bring flat out intensity with every shift.

Above I have outlined the key advantages that the Flames hold in this series against the Lightning. I can’t downplay any of the above for each factor looms as huge obstacles that Tampa Bay must overcome to be successful. This game in many ways is all about match-ups and outcomes are most often determined by the exploitation of such in head to head meetings. The match-up advantages and disadvantages are magnified tremendously in a 7 game playoff series and this series is absolutely loaded in Calgary’s favor. In few but some instances match-up disadvantages can be offset by heroic goaltending. I can’t see that in this series with Calgary’s Mika Kiprusov providing equal or better goaltending than that of Tampa Bay’s Nikolai Khabibulin.

Buzz Leverre

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Hockey Picks By: Buzz Leverre
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