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Previewing the
NHL rule changes and their potential
effect on betting totals
At the same time the
NHL emerged from its labor woes this
summer, it also announced a number of
rule changes and mandates to be implemented
during the 2005-06 season. In a sport
that for years has been hindered by
stifling defensive systems and officials'
tolerance of hooking, holding and other
forms of obstruction, the purpose of
the changes is simple: Create more scoring
chances.
With that in mind, as
the season sets to kick off tonight,
many Bodog
Sportsbook bettors are wondering
how the NHL's plans will affect the
lines - namely the totals.
Let's take a closer look:
1. Rink Dimensions
- Larger Offensive Zones
The size of the neutral
zone has been reduced by four feet and
the goal line has been moved two feet
closer to the boards.
Scoring Upside:
Attacking teams will have more room
to set up a sustained offense. This
is especially important on the power
play, where penalty killers will balance
a fine line between aggressively covering
the puck handler and leaving the extra
man with space to move into a shooting
position.
Scoring Downside:
The neutral zone is not simply a place
where the puck goes to die. For fast-skating
teams, it is an area that is used to
build speed through short, quick passes.
Therefore, any reduction in its size
may diminish rink-long rushes, leaving
attacking players with little choice
but to dump in the puck upon encountering
a logjam of defensive players.
2. Restrictions
on Goaltenders' Equipment
The size of goalie pads
will be reduced by approximately 11
percent.
Scoring Upside:
Remember how Mark Messier used to fly
down his off-wing and snap it home from
the top of the circle? In the most recent
seasons, with less and less room in
the net showing for shooters, that particular
play became as effective as Eric Lindros's
helmet. Shrinking their equipment should
force goaltenders to rely more on athleticism
and less on simply playing the angles
and getting in the way of the shot.
Scoring Downside:
None.
3. The Two-Line
Pass: Now Legal
Scoring Upside:
It seems obvious. When you allow the
two-line pass, you create more options
for teams to start the rush. This year,
players will have the choice of making
the traditional short breakout pass
or throwing the Hail Mary for a breakaway.
Mobile defensemen also will have more
opportunities to take the puck and rush
with it. (Somewhere, Bobby Orr is jealous.)
Scoring Downside:
What's less obvious is that allowing
the two-line pass can serve to cut down
on forechecking, with defensively minded
units worrying about becoming spread
out and porous. To use a football term,
defenses can simply default into the
"prevent defense" until they're able
to jam the attackers at the blue line.
4. Zero Tolerance
on Obstruction
Rule changes aside, the
truth remains that any uptick in offensive
production depends largely on the enforcement
of rules that have been on the books
for years.
Mobile, skilled defensemen
like
Nicklas Lidstrom will benefit from
the crackdown on obstruction.
The NHL has preached
zero tolerance on obstruction for the
upcoming season. Of course, they've
done that before, with officials making
every call in the book and entire games
being played with the man advantage.
But there was never any prolonged follow-through.
Eventually refs put the whistles back
in their pockets and the game returned
to a clutch-and-grab affair.
This year seems different,
with the league appearing fully committed
to ridding the game of hooking and holding.
And if the preseason is any indication,
penalties will be called. Lots of them.
Power-play efficiency
will be vital
Thus, when betting totals,
attention needs to be paid to power-play
efficiency. Early on, as teams continue
to adjust to the mandated style of play,
some games are going to have upwards
of 20 man-advantage situations. At a
conversion rate of 15 percent (approximately
the median rate for the 2003-04 season),
that means three power-play goals per
game, more than half of the average
total.
Related to this, bettors
also need to focus on the amount of
power plays given up by a team. This
is because some teams - inevitably the
ones with a fleet-footed defensive corps
that's able to gain proper position
on attackers - are better suited to
adjust to the crackdown on obstruction.
After all - good or bad - a team's power
play is insignificant if it doesn't
get any time on the ice.
Are you going to
bet on the NHL this year? Throw
us a line and tell us why or why not.
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