Bodog Stanley Cup Betting

Don’t bet on your favorite team. That’s one of the first lessons you learn when you gamble on sports with more on the line than a beer after the shift. You’re too emotionally involved. Where an objective observer sees a glaring weakness, your rosy outlook convinces you this is the day Marty Schottenheimer opens up the playbook or Alexei Yashin decides to backcheck like his $7.6-million contract depends on it or the Phoenix Suns find a way to front Tim Duncan.

For the sake of your bank account, sports betting experts advise you to steel yourself to a calculating approach when you wager. That’s the rule I followed, for 16 days. Beginning on April 8, I made a series of conservative, well-thought-out wagers that all ended up putting a sizable hole in my bankroll and dry wall. An unfathomable 0-for-11 run, culminating with the loss of $480 when Johan Santana inexplicably lost his second straight start at home. WTF!

Consider that entering the season the Cy Young winner hadn’t dropped a game at the Metrodome since Aug. 1, 2005, and he was up against a rookie pitcher from Cleveland named Fausto Carmona who hadn’t recorded a victory in over a year and you’d think the Twins with Santana coming off a loss was a sure way to be singing “Oye Como Va” to the cash machine. Instead, it was more like Oy-vey! (Well, okay, I said, “Fuck me.”)

The Tribe won, 5-3, and I was left with a lonely c-note and change. Meanwhile, my favorite hockey team (don’t ask why) had just brushed aside Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins in five games, and were about to take on a Devils team that had trouble with Tampa Bay in the first round. Hmmm…

I checked. The Stanley Cup odds for the Ottawa Senators at near midnight on April 24 were 11/2. Why not? Screw the experts, I dropped it all on the Sens. A win and I’d earn $550 and a bit. A loss and I sit on the sidelines until my cheapskate editor ups my weekly pittance.

Of course, I could’ve gone with my head and put it all on Anaheim, which had similar odds and was the team I’d predicted in virtual ink to win the Cup over Ottawa prior to the playoffs. But if I went with my head on things I wouldn’t be an unemployed hack living off Cup O’ Noodles and 99-cent pizza would I?

Yeah, I haven’t collected on the Sens. And my losing streak could reach a dozen straight wagers if they lose in the finals. But I’m glad I broke the rule and bet on the team I root hard for. It’s made their thrilling run even more of a joy ride. The only thing better than seeing your team win is knowing there could be a prize at the end for you, too.

Random Thoughts on the Stanley Cup Finals

• Key situation to watch: The Ducks’ power play succeeds when Chris Pronger gets the puck to the net. The Senators’ playoff-leading penalty kill works best when its forwards pressure the point. If the Ducks’ passes to Pronger aren’t sharp, the Senators could generate shorthanded chances. If Pronger gets his shot through, Ray Emery’s next tattoos will be black and blue.
• Dark horse players who could make a difference: Senators defenseman Andrej Meszaros (no relation, I think, to Bodog Nation contributing writer Jeff “The Wombat” Meszaros) will be joining the rush when the CASH line of Alfredsson-Spezza-Heatley is on the ice. Although he didn’t score against the Sabres, Meszaros looked dangerous when he jumped in the play. For the Ducks, rookie Drew Miller, the brother of Sabres goalie Ryan, has been elevated to the top line and will have a chance to fly with Teemu Selanne and Andy McDonald.
• Potential Stanley Cup goats: If the Senators are going to have success on the power play against Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Dany Heatley will have to pay a physical price in front of the net. If he stays on the halfboards, he won’t score and Ottawa won’t win the special-teams battle. Although everyone raves about Francois Beauchemin, the Ducks’ No. 3 defenseman is going to face a forecheck like he hasn’t seen in the postseason. His decision-making ability with the puck in his end will be tested.
• The Senators win if…: Their depth proves to overwhelm Anaheim. With six defensemen who play regular shifts and four forward lines that have all been capable defensively, Ottawa could run the Ducks out of the series.
• The Ducks win if…: They stop the CASH line, because doing so means they win the special-teams war. Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Heatley net most of their points on the power play, which is the biggest reason why there’s such a discrepancy in their offensive output compared to Ottawa’s other forwards.
• Bet you didn’t know: Emery was born 20 years to the day after Grant Fuhr. The two most successful black goalies in hockey share September 28 as their birthday. Emery, 24, was born in 1982.

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